India's transformation to a no-nonsense democracy

Pratim Ranjan Bose

In his 10-year rule, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has done much good for the country. 

Mega tax reforms, unprecedented focus on infrastructure and defence strategic sectors, dramatic push to digitisation, make-in-India, fast-forwarding defence hardware and space research programmes, energy transition, and start-up revolution are part of that list. 

  However, to my mind, the biggest change has come in the way India has conducted its business both internally and externally over the last decade. 

From my three-decade-long experience in tracking India’s policy-making and policy implementation, I can tell, that this is the first government that truly delivered. 

It does not mean that all policies were equally effective. What has essentially changed is the pace of making policy decisions and time-bound delivery. 

Together they made the BJP government far more accountable and trustworthy, which is reflected in its astounding electoral success. 

 

Marked Change

This is a marked change from the past when India was referred to by top editors and policy analysts across South and South East Asia as “a nation that talks.” 

I shared the podium with them in many international seminars. The criticism was not pleasing. However, there was not much way to counter it. 

Leaving aside her international commitments, India was a miserable failure in implementing projects even at home. Who would trust a nation that once didn’t have enough toilets? 

India took 20 years to build a strategic bridge in Assam; sat on the plan to build a dedicated rail freight corridor for years and; helplessly watched anarchic forces chasing away foreign direct investment (FDI) from Odisha in the name of green protests and civil rights. 

Thankfully, that era of non-performance is finally behind us. Any realistic assessment will prove that India’s policy implementation rate - be it in rural electrification or taking piped drinking water to rural households - is at par with the best in the world. 

During the pandemic, Modi promised to bring out homemade COVID vaccines for 140 crore people and, he did. Naturally, when he promises to make India a semiconductor hub in five years, everyone takes him seriously. 

 

Non-nonsense democracy

That takes us to Modi’s second contribution. 

Over the last 10 years, he has been successful in pushing forward the idea of a no-nonsense democracy where the government cannot be taken for a ride. Modi wants his government to be taken seriously, both in and outside India.

Internally, that brought a paradigm shift from the coalition-era experience - particularly during the Congress-led UPA rule between 2004 and 2014 - that gave rise to mobocracy, indiscipline and anarchy.

The recent arrest of Arvind Kejriwal, Chief Minister of the Union territory of Delhi for money laundering and; a huge Rs 135 crore or USD 16 million income tax recovery from Congress alongside fresh demands of over Rs 3000 crore; are perfect examples of the changed fundamentals in Indian democracy. 

Both actions have taken place following due and prolonged legal procedures. According to CNBC[i], Kejriwal ignored at least six summons from law enforcers since October 2023 to cooperate with the probe and took recourse to rhetorical politics. 

Kejriwal thought that the Modi government would not dare to take punitive action against him, ahead of the general election. He was proved wrong. Kejriwal was arrested on March 21. 

A division bench of the Delhi High Court first removed his constitutional protection from arrest. On April 1, he was ordered[i] 14-day judicial custody. Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) government in Delhi is now in serious trouble. 

Congress[ii] was equally brazen in its attempt to take the system for a ride. The party lost income tax exemption in 2018-19 due to extensive use of cash in the electoral process. 

India Today[iii] writes: The IT Department served its first notice to the Congress claiming a tax outstanding of Rs 105 crore on July 6, 2021. However, no response was received. 

A follow-up notice was issued on October 28, 2021, offering the party an option to settle 20% of the outstanding amount. Congress ignored it too. 

In the fiscal year 2021-22, the IT Commissioner dismissed the Congress's appeal against the IT Department's notice. Further notices issued by the department in 2023 were also essentially ignored. 

In May 2023, the party appealed against the IT Commissioner's decision in the Income Tax Appellate Tribunal (ITAT). 

Congress lost the appeal in ITAT and moved to a division bench of the Delhi High Court that upheld the order of the Appellate Tribunal. The court had rightly blamed Congress for “sleeping[iv]” on the three-year-old claim.  

Congress and AAP are now blaming Modi for the “murder of democracy.” Rahul Gandhi of Congress went a step ahead in threatening[v] officials of punitive action[vi] whenever his party returns to power. 

Is Rahul Gandhi speaking in the language of democracy? 

 

Remote control will not work

Some foreign powers - namely Germany and the USA[vii] - came in support of Kejriwal and Congress and, went back home with an earful. 

Washington Post[viii] writes: “U.S. and German officials issued public statements gently reminding India about the importance of the rule of law. The response from New Delhi was anything but gentle.” 

The Indian foreign ministry immediately summoned German and U.S. diplomats for a dressing-down. It lashed out at Washington for “casting aspersions” and making “completely unacceptable” comments about India’s internal affairs.  

According to the American newspaper, “It reflected the tough new brand of diplomacy embraced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and cheered by his nationalist supporters.”

The truth is, any well-meaning Indian would support the emergence of a strong state that would not give in to undue pressures from outside or inside. 

 

***

 

  [i] https://www.barandbench.com/news/delhi-court-sends-arvind-kejriwal-judicial-custody-april-15

[ii] https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/recovery-of-rs-135-crore-from-congress-as-per-income-tax-laws-report-5335604

[iii] https://www.indiatoday.in/law/story/income-tax-department-case-against-indian-national-congress-comprehensive-breakdown-2505890-2024-02-22

[iv] https://www.livemint.com/politics/news/delhi-hc-dismisses-congress-plea-seeking-stay-of-income-tax-notice-for-recovery-of-over-rs-105-cr-11710322041874.html

[v] https://x.com/RahulGandhi/status/1773663481679458688?s=20 

[vi] https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/elections/lok-sabha/india/strict-action-against-those-trying-to-murder-the-democracy-rahul-gandhis-guarantee-after-congress-gets-i-t-notices/articleshow/108880553.cms?from=mdr

[vii] https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/us-speaks-again-on-arvind-kejriwal-mentions-frozen-congress-accounts-5324508

[viii] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/29/india-us-criticism-kejriwal/

 

Opposition unity for Arvind Kejriwal may be temporary

             Pratim Ranjan Bose

Last week was eventful in Indian politics. Arvind Kejriwal, the Chief Minister of Delhi and supremo of Aam Aadmi Party or AAP has landed up in jail in a multi-billion-dollar kickback scam involving the liquor distribution policy. 

            

The arrest of Chief Ministers and ministers for corruption charges is not new to India. In 2014, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalitha was arrested in a disproportionate asset case.  

Lalu Yadav of RJD in Bihar handed over the Chief ministership to his wife in 1997 and enjoyed power from behind after a federal agency accused him of fodder scam. He was eventually arrested. 

Hemant Soren from Jharkhand stepped down earlier this year anticipating arrest. Madhu Koda also from Jharkhand was arrested in 2009 within months of relegating power.

However, Kejriwal’s arrest was distinct. 

 

Firstly, the timing. He was arrested on March 21, after the announcement of the general election on March 16. 

The arrest did not come easy. The probe has been on since August 2022. Delhi’s Deputy Chief Minister was arrested for the scam in March 2023. 

According to CNBC[i], Kejriwal ignored at least six summons from law enforcers since October 2023 to cooperate with the probe. He ignored each of them and even questioned the authority of the agency in summoning him. 

Finally, the Delhi High Court checked the evidence in the hands of the investigating agency and denied him immunity[ii] from arrest. 

The Opposition, led by Congress - which is barely in competition against the ruling BJP in the ensuing election - expressed solidarity with Kejriwal. However, for more reasons than one, the support may be temporary or superficial. 

Firstly, Kejriwal came to prominence during Anna Hazare’s movement against corruption in 2011. AAP was formed in 2012. 

And, since its birth, AAP was at loggerheads with Congress which was then ruling the union territory of Delhi. Kejriwal promised to send the then Delhi Chief Minister Late Sheila Dixit to jail. 

He publicly accused Sonia Gandhi, the ultimate power centre in Congress, of corruption and dared the federal agencies to arrest her. 

It was AAP that dislodged the Congress government in Punjab in 2022. 

In 2016, former Congress Chief Minister of Punjab Captain Amarinder Singh[iii] accused the Delhi CM of taking suspicious funding from the US for his non-profit organisation. 

In December 2022, Congress lodged a formal complaint to law enforcers seeking a probe into the liquor scam. 

 And, most critically, AAP was a spoiler to Congress’s recent effort to unite opposition parties under a grand coalition for the 2024 election. 

 

Second, the Opposition unity on Kejriwal’s arrest is also questionable due to the depth of the scam that cuts across the business and political spectrum. 

K Kavitha, daughter of former Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao from BRS is also arrested in the scam. 

According to a report in The New Indian Express[iv] on March 24, Kavita was allegedly mediating between Kejriwal government and politically influential liquor barons from South India for taking advantage of the Delhi liquor policy. 

Some of the businessmen already turned approver[v] to the law enforcement agency probing the money laundering scam. One such businessman, who admitted offering kickback through Kavita, recently joined TDP of Andhra Pradesh. 

Media is speculating if Kavita will also turn an approver. 

 

Thirdly, just as “Pakistan is not a normal country,” Kejriwal and his AAP are not regular political entities. 

In an editorial published on March 23 - that is after the arrest of the Delhi CM - anti-BJP newspaper, The Hindu[vi] reminded that Kejriwal and his “band of anarchists” rose to national prominence by giving precedence to “mobocracy."

Both Congress and BJP accused Kejriwal and his AAP, time and again, directly or indirectly, of giving precedence to anarchy or supporting anarchic forces. 

The allegation took a serious turn on March 25, when exiled Khalistani terrorist, Gurpatwant Singh Pannun claimed[vii] that Khalistani groups provided nearly $16 million to AAP between 2014 and 2022. The report was carried in all prominent Indian newspapers. 

 

Notably, such groups have strong media networks in the West. Seen from this perspective, the sympathy wave in the Western media and, the sharp reaction of German foreign ministry, might have further ruined Kejriwal’s case. India slammed[viii] Germany for poking their nose in our internal affairs. 

Clearly, Kejriwal’s arrest may have more than it meets the eye. 

***

  [i] https://www.cnbctv18.com/india/delhi-excise-policy-case-timeline-of-key-events-leading-to-cm-arvind-kejriwal-arrest-19345501.htm

[ii] https://www.livelaw.in/high-court/delhi-high-court/delhi-high-court-refuses-to-grant-interim-protection-from-ed-arrest-to-cm-arvind-kejriwal-in-liquor-policy-case-253041

[iii] https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/arvind-kejriwal-ngo-cia-amarinder-singh-sikh-chhotepur-337574-2016-08-27

[iv] https://www.newindianexpress.com/explainers/2024/Mar/24/where-brs-leader-kavitha-figures-in-the-delhi-liquor-scam

[v] https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/how-sarath-reddy-turning-approver-in-delhi-liquor-scam-will-impact-kcrs-daughter-kavitha-2387982-2023-06-02

[vi] https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/editorial/aap-trap-on-arvind-kejriwals-arrest-and-democracy/article67981526.ece

[vii] https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/khalistani-separatist-leader-gurpatwant-pannun-alleges-aap-and-arvind-kejriwal-of-receiving-rs-134-crore-from-the-group/articleshow/108763738.cms?from=mdr

[viii] https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/why-india-slammed-germany-over-comments-on-arvind-kejriwals-arrest-5300230

 

BookReview: "The Battle of Rezang La". That shameful history of 1962 war, when India's political and military leadership left their soldiers in the cold.

Pratim Ranjan Bose

Economic liberalization and the rise of nationalist politics are helping the country in reassessing its past. This is happening more by default than design as people started speaking their minds. The carefully built imageries, narratives of the past to protect some interests are replaced by more objective assessments. To me, this is the proverbial bloom of hundred flowers.

“The Battle of Rezang La” (pass) is the story of a company (120) of soldiers who almost all (110) laid their life in protecting an important area in Ladakh in the 1962 Sino-India war, which India lost.

But that’s not what makes the book interesting. Written by a former uniformed officer and published in 2021, it reconstructed part of a shameful history, where the country’s political and military leadership dumped its soldiers unprepared, before the enemy fire.

There was more to this story. Once the war was over, the Indian leadership did everything to suppress all information about the heroics of these soldiers, who fought a war at 18000 ft without proper clothing, arms, ammunition and even food.

The intelligence support was highly compromised. The defence ministry was headed by a humbug Leftist who was not even in the country when the war broke out. The government was headed by someone who had little regard for defence strategic issues, untl the fag end of his tenure.  

Jawaharlal Nehru famously considered the army a burden on the country’s exchequer and denied doing anything for strategic needs till about 1960 when the Border Roads Organisation was formed. A prisoner of his imaginary world of the non-aligned movement and ‘ahimsha’, he didn’t feel the need to protect the northern boundaries till the disaster struck.

Typical to those days, the army top brass drawn from the elites of the country rallied around the high profile defence minister and the Prime Minister. The defence minister was not on talking terms with some of his generals.

With this background, India went to war against China, which had been preparing for months. They had better intelligence, border roads which ensured the all-important supply line to fight a high-altitude war. Theoretically, India had firepower. In reality, we didn’t even have roads to take the artillery to the border.

We were less in terms of the number of soldiers. But we had superior firepower in the air – which for reasons that can be explained by defence strategists – was not put to use in Sino-India War.

Soldiers rushed in at the last minute. Before they could even build the bunkers - necessary to survive in one of the coldest regions on earth where temperature moved between minus five to minus 30 – they found themselves in the middle of a war with the Chinese outnumbering Indians on 10:1 average.

The Charlie company of the 13 Kumaon Battalion (now renamed after Rezang La) fought against such heavy odds. They didn’t have communication. Artillery support didn’t arrive. Yet, they grossly outnumbered the Chinese in the casualty ratio. An estimated 1300 Chinese soldiers died against the 110 Indians.

The battalion became local folklore both in Ladakh and Haryana (from where soldiers were drawn). But sadly, not many even within the army came to know about their heroic. Because military bosses didn’t like it to be publicized.

I know little about military strategies. But I have interests in the economy, infrastructure and geopolitics. I follow military history and developments from that perspective. The recent India-China conflict at Galwan valley took place in this region only.

It’s a very thin boon of barely 175 odd pages. All the names are real. The writing style is something like a military diary, which is frill-free. Price Rs 400. Quick read. 

 

***

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West Bengal Assembly Eelection 2021: The tide is getting stronger against Mamata with each passing day. A clean sweep by BJP is possible

(This forecast had gone wrong. Trinamool won the election with a huge majority)             

Pratim Ranjan Bose

 The ruling Trinamool Congress in West Bengal is in a hurry to end the ensuing assembly election. They wanted the Election Commission to combine the remaining four phases of polling into one, in view of the rising covid cases.

It is, however, questionable what bothers Trinamool the most – the second wave of corona or the rising levels of anti-Trinamool and pro-Modi waves, which are taking cyclonic proportions with every passing day.

As on March 27, during the first phase polling, voters were largely silent. The regular answer to questions on poll prospect was “dekhi ki hoy! (let’s see what happens) The odd ones spoke but in a hush-hush tone.

Some of course cheered for ‘Didi’, as the Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is referred, but their numbers were less. More importantly, privately many of them admitted to have paid cut-money to local leaders to avail benefits of development schemes including the rural employment guarantee (MNREGA) wages. 

 

Huge wave

Three weeks and four phases of polling down the line, the situation has changed dramatically. Visit the Trinamool bastions of Purba Bardhaman district, where BJP managed a lead in only two out of 16 assembly segments in 2019, people are expressing their displeasures with Trinamool openly.  

The striking fact is the resentments are not limited to any class. From the moneyed and educated in Samudragarh to roadside vendors at Kalna bus terminus, agricultural labour in Memari and civic volunteers at Bhatar - all are on the same page.

They denounce nepotism, corruption and high-handedness of local Trinamool leaders; criticise Ms. Banerjee’s focus on doles, and demand better economic opportunities to earn money.

The Rs 9000 per month job of a civic volunteer, allegedly attracts a ‘cut’ of Rs 2-5 lakh. From school teachers to college lecturers – everything allegedly comes at a price.  Bengal has never heard of such democratization of corruption.

The same situation prevails over every district, every corner of the State and people now want a respite. They primarily want a change.

Voters know BJP is not a paragon of virtues. The saffron party fielded turncoat Trinamool MLA Biswajit Kundu - who was part of an alleged scam in school teacher recruitment - from Kalna.

But, ask the commoners in Kalna about the poll prospect and they are putting BJP ahead. Voters, particularly young voters, have tremendous faith in Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The idea is clear: Let’s give Modi an opportunity to make things better.

Add to this the religious polarization, the after-effects of pseudo-secularism, which was pursued by the Left beginning 1990’s and taken to the levels of overt appeasement by Mamata Banerjee, there is a storm blowing across Bengal. 

To the misfortune of Mamata Banerjee, her politics is now being rejected even by the Muslims. They are equally, if not more, affected by all-pervasive corruption. Moreover, a sizable section of Bengali Muslims is alarmed by the rising polarization and its potential pitfalls.

Such resentment is finding voice through Abbas Siddiqui’s Indian Secular Front (ISF), which fielded candidates in the Trinamool bastions of South (31 seat) and North (33 seats) 24-Parganas, with 36 percent and 26 percent Muslim population respectively.

Trinamool won 56 seats in two districts in 2016. But the situation is critical in 2021.

 

Little impact of Sitalkuchi

Polling is already over in South 24 Pargana. In 2019, Trinamool maintained a lead in all assembly segments. In 2021, they should be in the backfoot in 15-odd Hindu majority constituencies. ISF is taking on Trinamool, in Muslim majority constituencies, which may open additional winning opportunities for BJP.

The situation is equally critical in North 24-Parganas, which will go to polls in the next two phases. Here BJP managed a lead in 12 assembly segments in 2019. The wave should give them an extra edge in Hindu majority seats in 2021. On the other hand, Muslim votes will split.

Many think that the Sitalkuchi (Coochbehar) firing incident, where four persons – all Muslims – died on April 10, offered Ms Banerjee an opportunity to re-consolidate Muslim votes in her favour.

Ms Banerjee surely didn’t let the opportunity go. She accused the BJP for “planning” the incident. However, it is questionable if voters are buying her logic.

On April 13, when Ms. Banerjee was sitting in a Dharna in Kolkata; Muslim voters in Amdanga in North 24-Parganas were openly cheering for the ISF candidate. They constitute half of the electorate here and Trinamool had a substantial lead in the seat in 2019.

If you think this is a stray case, you are making a mistake. Bad governance affects everyone. Unfortunately, Muslims do not have much choice. So, a majority of them may end up voting for Trinamool.

However, wherever they have a choice like ISF in 24-Parganas; Congress and AIMIM in Murshidabad (69 percent Muslim), minority votes will be divided. Many Muslims may also side with the BJP for political shelter.

 

Mistakes of Mamata

To sum up, people have made up their mind on West Bengal Assembly election 2021 with limited scope for revision. 

There is little doubt that the wave of resentments, if translated into votes, may cause serious damage to Trinamool’s interests. A clean sweep by BJP is possible. And, if that happens Ms Banerjee should only blame herself.

Looking back, her government is paying the price for two major mistakes – throttling of opposition voices and miscalculating the impacts of Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019 to consolidate Hindu votes.

The Trinamool Congress government was in tussle with the State Election Commission from the word go, on issues regarding free and fair election of local bodies. The government’s intentions finally prevailed and the 2018 rural body election was a farce.

That was not all. Rampant floor-crossing of elected representatives to Trinamool weakened a weak Opposition. Most of such crossovers (a few dozens in two terms) did not attract the anti-defection law. They sat in the Opposition bench in the Assembly and sided with Trinamool in public.

Such policies took pandemic proportions in local bodies. In one incident, the sole Opposition member in an urban body joined Trinamool within a few hours of winning the election. With the arrival of BJP, as a viable force, voters are now ready to teach Trinamool a lesson.

Similarly, Banerjee underestimated the impact of CAA on the Hindu population who were forced to migrate from East Pakistan and Bangladesh for the last 74 years. No one knows their number, because no one kept a record of them after 1958.

But, they kept coming and today the population with lineage on the other side of the border is everywhere. Matuas are just a part of this population.

Barring a lucky few, the dominant majority of this population has a history of faking identities to stay in India. What pains them is they are treated at par with the Muslim migrants, who came for economic reasons and changed the demography of the state in last 40 years.

There is little doubt that implementation of CAA with retrospective effects will not be easy. But, the law came as a sentimental relief to these silent sufferers, who are now rallying around BJP. Ms. Banerjee saw the amendment from only one end of the spectrum.

 

***

 

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(All pictures are taken from the web)

BJP’s ‘Mission Bengal’: Book review and more

 Pratim Ranjan Bose

Over the last half a century, particularly since economic liberalization in 1991, India has changed a lot.

Chennai is now an auto-hub. Hyderabad is an IT city. Odisha and Chhattisgarh are top destinations for industrial investments. Sikkim is riding on the pharma boom. Extremism is replaced by peace and prosperity in Guwahati, in the North-East.

Only one major Indian State, West Bengal, remained out of this loop. Kolkata - which was the headquarters of majority index stocks, at Bombay Stock Exchange, till 1980’s - now barely has quality corporate jobs. 

While the age-mix is falling in other Indian metroes; Kolkata is ageing. It has the largest pool of senior citizens and the lowest share of 20 plus – a clear indication that the young and aspiring are giving the city a miss.

A major and definite reason behind this stagnation is the politics of isolation and conflict, introduced by the Left (1977-2011) and pursued with greater vengeance by the ruling Trinamool Congress of Mamata Banerjee (since 2011).

Jyoti Basu (1977-2000) government denied space to centrally-funded residential schools (Navodaya Vidyalaya) for the meritorious. Mamata rejected access of the poor and farmers to central welfare schemes.

Apologists argue that the regional nature of both Left and Trinamool prompted them to guard their territories. But that’s a half truth.

Regional politics was strong between 1977 and 2014 and still rules Odisha, Telengana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu etc. None made it a religion to oppose the federal government at every single step.

This shouldn’t and didn’t benefit Bengalis. But State governments survived decades through violent use of State and/or party machinery to establish virtual one-party rule that limited democratic options to voters.

Ideology has been a cover to legitimize the illegitimate.  There was a lame-duck opposition during Left-rule. Mamata went one step ahead to make the State ‘Opposition-free’. 

‘Political killing’ is commonplace. Terms like ‘pre-poll violence’, ‘post-poll violence’ are Bengal’s gift to the nation. Hundreds die before or after local body elections, where Opposition fails to submit nomination in 30-40 percent seats.

"Mission Bengal"

The politics of territorial control and conflict is now under threat from Narendra Modi’s nationalist BJP. For the first time since the decline of Congress in 1977, a national party is knocking the doors of power, in West Bengal.

From barely two Parliamentary seats in the 2014 General Election; BJP upped their stake to 18 seats (out of 42) in 2019 and is now aspiring to overthrow Mamata from power, in the 2021 Assembly election.

Considering the 34-year Left rule and BJP’s past weakness in the State (got the first member in legislative assembly in a 2014 by-election) since inception in 1980; this is a major development.

Journalist Snigdhendu Bhattacharya’s “Mission Bengal: A Saffron experiment”, published by HarperCollins is an attempt to chronicle this juncture of history. As the first such work on the block, it deserves discussion.

The book is basically a diary of events, offering blow-by-blow account of the moves and counter-moves by Trinamool and BJP, in the run up of the dramatic change in political scenario, particularly since Trinamool’s emphatic win in the 2016 Assembly election.

Among the negatives, it offers mundane details of the local BJP leadership, none of whom are capable enough to generate a swing that is essential to script a victory. It was Modi versus Didi (as Mamata is known) in 2019 and would remain so in 2021.

Having said that the book offers important details on the deep inroads of RSS – the mother organization of BJP – in West Bengal and the opportunistic politics of Mamata who was a coalition partner of BJP till 2007.

Oppressive and undemocratic practices pursued by Trinamool, particularly to win the 2018 rural body election and; rising religious divide, as evident in the series of communal riots that the State had witnessed in the recent past – are identified as major fault lines.

Religious divide

The issue of communal divide is important.

West Bengal has 28 percent Muslim population, third largest after Jammu and Kashmir and Assam. In the past, these votes didn’t follow any strategic pattern. But the trend started changing since 1990’s and ended up playing a crucial role behind the rise of Mamata Banerjee to power.

Nationally, the communal divide has been rising since the 1980's due to three primary reasons. (1) The wave of Islamic brotherhood , coinciding Soviet-Afghan war (1979-89).

(2) Rajiv Gandhi government’s ill-conceived decision to yield to the Islamic resistance to the Supreme Court verdict against the practice of Triple Talaq, in 1985, leading to consolidation of Hindu sentiments. (3) The demolition of Babri Mosque in 1992.

In West Bengal this period coincided with rampant illegal immigration of Muslims from Bangladesh (formerly East Pakistan), which was parallel to migration of Hindu refugees to India in the face of religious-social oppression.

Unlike the Western border, where the flow of refugees more or less stopped in two years from the Partition in 1947; the flow of Hindus from East Pakistan and then Bangladesh never stopped.

The India government stopped keeping count of refugees from East Pakistan beginning 1958 and didn't recognize any such entry following the birth of Bangladesh in 1972. However, Hindus continued to face discrimination in Bangladesh, particularly during the Army rule (1975-1990) and the first BNP rule (1991-1996).

In the absence of any official recognition, Hindu refugees from Bangladesh quietly slipped in India. In the eyes of the law, their entry was as much illegal as that of the poor Muslims entering the country for better work opportunities.

Snigdhendu proves that immigration of Muslims was way larger than Hindus in the early 1990’s and the political administration was active in making them voters of the country through the backdoor.

This was also the time when Left’s traditional support base was waning due to long stay in power.  in 1984, Mamata Banerjee won from Hindu refugee dominated Jadavpur Parliamentary constituency, once considered a bastion of Left.

The communists focused their attention on Muslims, who started showing signs of voting in a block, creating ground for today’s trouble.

In another decade, Islamists will riot on the streets of Kolkata demanding the scalp of the exiled Bangladeshi writer Taslima Nasrin, who was then staying in the city. In a few more years, this vote would move to Trinamool inviting the fall of the Left.

In 2013, when Dhaka was witnessing a popular protest demanding capital punishment to prominent pro-Pakistani Liberation War criminals; Islamists in Kolkata were demanding the scalp of the Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

 The anguish of the majority was rising. But there was no redressal to it in the absence of political resistance by the existing players - Left and Congress. It was at this juncture BJP entered the scene and got a record 17 percent votes – nearly three-fold rise from the previous average - in 2014.

It was time Mamata should have realized her mistakes. But she didn’t (as was epitomized by her 2019 statement - “the cow that gives milk, must not be wronged for throwing a few kicks” - with regard to allegations of appeasement politics) Riots followed in greater numbers.  Snigdhendu did a great job in chronicling such incidents.

BJP didn’t miss this opportunity. The Citizenship (Amendment) Act 2019 (CAA) proposed to grant automatic citizenship to Hindu (and other minorities) who entered India till 2014. This has also mitigated the concerns of Hindus over the anticipated updation of the citizenship roll.

 End of ‘Banglar Gorbo’?

Will BJP win the 2021 election in Bengal?

The book remained tentative. This is partly due to BJP’s organizational weaknesses in the State, and the Muslim vote riddle. The loss of BJP in three assembly by-elections in 2019, added to the lack of confidence.

The entry of high-profile election strategist Prashant Kishore or PK in the scene to support Trinamool’s cause further rattled the confidence of the author.

None of these, however, indicate recovery in Mamata’s popularity. By-elections are never the right indicator of the overall political mood. BJP lost important byelections in UP before sweeping the Parliamentary election in 2019.

In all fairness, Mamata and her strategist probably wants to create a perception of popularity to check the slide. But they themselves are not confident about the outcome as was evident in the postponement of urban body elections even before the COVID struck in March 2020.

Social media campaigns to project Mamata as the numero uno of Bengal politics fell flat on their face. The ‘Banglar Gorbo’ (pride of Bengal) campaign, launched during the pandemic, became a butt of the joke on the internet and was evidently discontinued.

 On a weak wicket

So what will happen to Mamata?

In my opinion, she is standing on a very weak wicket and the situation is steadily slipping out of her hand. Communal divide is just a part of the whole development. She is losing ground before smart politics by BJP and governance failures.

Mamata knows it too well. At a recent administrative meeting she complained that perhaps she did a bit too much for North Bengal, so people took her granted. This was a clear admission of her party’s weak fundamentals in the region.

BJP swept all seven Parliamentary seats in North Bengal in 2019. The region has over 50 Assembly segments and as things stand now, Trinamool’s seat-share may not reach double digit in North Bengal in 2021.

The tribal and forested parts of West Bengal bordering Jharkhand voted for BJP in 2019. Leave alone salvaging the situation, Trinamool’s organization in the area is now collapsing. The party strongman is on a collision course with Mamata.

Singur, in Hooghly district, in the outskirts of Kolkata, played a crucial role in creating Mamata myth. BJP was ahead in this assembly segment in 2019 Lok Sabha election and no one expected a reversal of fortune in 2021.

So, what went wrong for her? Many things. First and foremost, the all-pervasive corruption, and rent seeking by the political administration even in the face of worst calamities did hurt people.

During the pandemic, there have been sporadic protests even in areas where BJP barely exists, against alleged diversion of PDS foodgrain. The story was repeated over distribution of relief, after cyclone Amphan that ravaged the Muslim dominated districts of North and South 24 Parganas.

Add to this the high-handed attitude that suppresses every dissent. During the ruthlessly one-sided rural body election, BJP could put up some resistance in Purulia district. After the election, BJP activists were found hanging dead in public places. Probably they were celebrating success by committing suicide!

People are angry and they are taking BJP as an avenue to vent their frustration. Even a section of Muslims are participating in this trend. The CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey in 2019 indicated doubling of BJP’s minuscule Muslim vote share in Bengal since 2014.  

 The third point is political. Mamata introduced identity politics in West Bengal, by garnering community specific support. Some of them - like lower caste Hindu refugees and Muslims – had traditional differences.

The gap was explored by Modi’s BJP which excelled in consolidating Hindu votes, breaching all caste barriers beginning 2014. If V P Singh was credited for disintegrating Hindu votes, through the famed Mandal Commission report. Modi would be known for breaking those barriers open to take BJP's popularity to historic high.

The expertise is now coming to use in West Bengal. BJP garnered substantial support of Hindu refugees in 2019. With CAA in place, the trend may consolidate in 2021.

A major attraction of BJP is its freshness and unique positioning in Bengal politics vis-à-vis Trinamool, Left and Congress. All three had a stay in power, have stake on the Muslim vote bank and all cast aspersions on BJP as a Hindutva party.

This gives rise to the perception that Left and/or Congress can join hands with Trinamool, if need be, to keep BJP out of power. BJP uses this to cement its position as the only option for every disgruntled voice that wants to replace Mamata. 

And, there are too many such voices. If some want an end to appeasement politics, some others want to take revenge for the political atrocities or rent seeking and, then there are young voters, who can no longer be fooled by this politics of isolation and jobs of civic volunteers.

Young voters were Modi’s biggest bet to come to power in Delhi in 2014 and they would be the prime movers of change, in Bengal, in the 2021 Assembly election.

 

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